Indonesia Haze Strikes Malaysia and Singapore as El Nino Disables Cloud Seeding

Indonesia's wildfires have become a Southeast Asian public health emergency. As blazes burned simultaneously across 10 provinces Monday, smoke from the fires pushed air quality in nine areas of Malaysia's Sarawak state above the national threshold for unhealthy air — with Serian, the worst-affected district, recording an Air Pollutant Index reading of 180 in the unhealthy range — while Singapore's 28-agency Haze Task Force stood on alert to activate individual agency haze action plans, with the NEA reporting a PSI of 81 that placed the city-state at the upper edge of the moderate range. Indonesia's coordinating minister confirmed the fires have burned more than 107,000 hectares (approximately 264,500 acres) in the worst-affected provinces — and announced that cloud seeding, the government's most effective aerial suppression tool, is off the table through at least August 18 because no rain-bearing clouds exist over the affected areas.

The haze alarm is not abstract. In June, the Singapore Institute of International Affairs issued a Red haze rating for 2026 — only the second such rating since the report launched in 2019 — identifying August and September as the "peak danger period" for a severe transboundary haze episode across Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei. Research published in Scientific Reports found that Indonesia's comparable 2015 fires exposed 69 million people in Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia to unhealthy air quality and was responsible for an estimated 6,150 to 17,270 premature deaths in just two months. Peak fire season has not yet arrived.

Why Cloud Seeding Cannot Work Right Now

Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Djamari Chaniago, speaking after a crisis meeting in Jakarta with relevant ministers and agency heads, described cloud seeding as "one of the most effective ways to help firefighters combat wildfires by inducing rainfall through the dispersal of salt particles into suitable clouds." The obstacle in 2026 is not technology or budget — it is atmosphere. Scientific monitoring conducted by Indonesia's Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) found no suitable clouds for weather-modification operations through Aug. 18, Chaniago said.

Cloud seeding works by dispersing particles — salt, silver iodide, or dry ice — into existing moisture-bearing clouds, triggering the formation of ice crystals that fall as rain. The technique can enhance precipitation from qualifying clouds but cannot manufacture rain from clear skies. Indonesia deployed cloud seeding in 2015 during the catastrophic haze season; Malaysia deployed its own aircraft over Kuala Lumpur and Kuching during that same crisis. In 2026, El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole have together suppressed atmospheric moisture so thoroughly that the raw material for any seeding operation is absent.

The compound effect of two simultaneous climate drivers makes 2026 unusual even by Indonesia's grim fire-season standards. El Niño — the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation — reduces rainfall across maritime Southeast Asia by warming Pacific Ocean surface temperatures and weakening the trade winds that normally carry moisture toward Indonesia. A positive IOD amplifies El Niño drought by cooling sea surface temperatures near Sumatra and Java, establishing a high-pressure system that further suppresses rainfall. Indonesia's National Research and Innovation Agency characterized the 2026 El Niño as a "Super El Niño," with Pacific temperature anomalies above normal running 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 3.6°F). The dry season, which normally runs through September-October, was projected to extend from April through October — six months — before the first fires of the season had even begun.

Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni, visiting Mount Bromo on Sunday, acknowledged the consequence directly: "We are relying solely on water bombing and ground firefighting teams," he said.

What Is Burning, and Where

The 107,000 hectares (approximately 264,500 acres) confirmed as of Monday are distributed across the five island groups in Indonesia's archipelago: Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua. The BNPB's Center for Disaster Data confirmed that fires have been active in more than a dozen regencies and cities across the affected provinces.

The single largest active blaze occupies Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park in East Java, home to Mount Bromo — one of Indonesia's most photographed active volcanoes and most visited tourist destinations. By Monday, the fire had burned approximately 743 hectares of park terrain (about 1,836 acres) of dry grassland, native vegetation, and protected edelweiss flowers, and had spread toward Penanjakan, the elevated sunrise-viewing area that draws thousands of visitors daily. The park has been closed to all visitors indefinitely. Park chief Rudijanta Tjahja Nugraha said the closure would remain in effect until conditions stabilize. No injuries or evacuations from within the park have been reported.

The Bromo fire began burning on approximately August 3 and entered its eighth day on Monday, making it the fire's longest-running episode on record at that location since flares from a photo shoot ignited more than 500 hectares in September 2023. This fire's cause is weather and seasonality, not a single human act: East Java is in the deepest stretch of its dry season, with vegetation parched after weeks of below-average rainfall.

In Jambi province on Sumatra island, more than 50 hectares (about 124 acres) of peatland have burned since Wednesday, destroying dozens of hectares of oil palm plantations in Sungai Gelam village in the Muaro Jambi district. Deep peat soil, limited water supplies, difficult terrain access, and strong winds have hampered ground firefighting even with three helicopters conducting aerial water-bombing runs. Peat fires are structurally resistant to suppression: they ignite below the soil surface, burn underground for weeks, and can reignite after appearing extinguished — a physical characteristic of smoldering combustion in organic-rich terrain.

The broader fire footprint also includes Central Kalimantan and South Kalimantan on Borneo, and multiple smaller blazes across North, South, and Southeast Sulawesi and Southwest Papua, with joint emergency teams mobilized across all affected areas.

What Is Breathing the Smoke

The most acute consequence of the fires on Monday was visible in Malaysian air quality monitors.

Across Sarawak — Malaysia's portion of Borneo island, directly downwind of Kalimantan's fire clusters — nine areas recorded Air Pollutant Index readings above 100, Malaysia's threshold for "unhealthy" air. Serian, the southernmost district, recorded an API of 180. Kuching reached 162, Samarahan 163, Sibu 158, Sri Aman 153, Sarikei 154, Mukah 156, Bintulu 147, and Samalaju 142. In Peninsular Malaysia, Johan Setia, Selangor recorded 153. Sarawak's deputy premier Douglas Uggah Embas warned Monday that transboundary haze was expected to affect 19 named Sarawak areas in the coming days, with MetMalaysia forecasting hot and less rainy conditions across Borneo through at least August 14.

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre reported 905 hotspots in Kalimantan over the prior three days, compared with only six in Sarawak itself — confirming Indonesia as the primary source of the haze now affecting Malaysian territory.

In Singapore, the National Environment Agency reported that as of Sunday afternoon, the 24-hour Pollutant Standards Index had reached 81 in the central region — within the "moderate" range but approaching the 100-point threshold that triggers the NEA's public health advisory system. The agency noted that hotspots and smoke plumes had been observed over parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, and that prevailing southeasterly winds could carry smoke toward Singapore. Singapore's 28-agency Haze Task Force stands ready to activate individual agency haze action plans should the 24-hour PSI cross 100.

Health advisories across the affected region urge children, the elderly, pregnant women, and people with pre-existing heart or lung conditions to reduce outdoor activity and monitor air quality readings.

How Bad It Could Get: The 2015 Reference Point

The SIIA's Red alert was issued in June specifically because the 2026 El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole combination matches the conditions that produced the 2015 fire season — the benchmark against which every subsequent Indonesian fire emergency is measured.

In 2015, Indonesian fires burned approximately 4.6 million hectares across the archipelago, with more than a third on peatland. The resulting haze blanketed Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia for months. A peer-reviewed study published in Scientific Reports by researchers from the United Kingdom, United States, Singapore, and Malaysia estimated that 69 million people were exposed — more than a quarter of the combined population of those three countries — to unhealthy air quality conditions during September and October 2015 alone, with between 6,150 and 17,270 premature deaths resulting from PM2.5 exposure over that two-month period. A separate Harvard-Columbia study on 2015 deaths estimated up to 100,300 premature deaths; that figure was contested by the governments of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.

Indonesia has already broken 2015's hotspot records at the same calendar point. By late July 2026, the satellite fire-monitoring platform FireWatch recorded more than 96,000 fire hotspots nationwide — exceeding any previously recorded total at that point in the year, including 2015, 2019, and 2023.

Fire Season Has Barely Begun

BMKG identifies August and September as the two peak months of Indonesia's fire season — the period when fire activity accelerates toward its historical maximum. The agency's projections show that El Niño and the positive IOD will continue suppressing rainfall across Kalimantan, Sumatra, Jambi, and West Kalimantan through at least October 2026, with BMKG projecting the overall El Niño event to peak between December 2026 and January 2027. Several regions had already experienced more than 60 consecutive days without rainfall as of the BMKG's July 30 briefing.

BNPB head Suharyanto has stated publicly that the agency is "stepping directly onto the ground to ensure optimal forest and land fire handling." President Prabowo Subianto has issued direct orders requiring all ministries, the Indonesian National Army, the National Police, and regional governments to act in coordination. With 43 helicopters deployed and ground firefighting crews active across all 10 affected provinces, the government has described its posture as a maximum-response emergency.

Who Is Setting the Fires

The structural cause of most ignitions remains unchanged: human negligence and deliberate land clearing by fire, concentrated in and around oil palm and timber concession boundaries. Environmental monitoring organizations Pantau Gambut and Madani Berkelanjutan have documented more than 28,000 peatland hotspots in the first half of 2026, with research identifying 1,617 hotspots within oil palm cultivation rights areas in West Kalimantan alone. Indonesia's Forestry Ministry has attributed fire causation primarily to weather and public behavior; Pantau Gambut's position is that large-scale plantation concession activity is the primary structural driver.

Why the Regional Haze Keeps Returning

The ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, signed in 2002 and ratified by all 10 member states by 2014, was hailed at its creation as "the first regional arrangement in the world that binds a group of contiguous states to tackle transboundary haze pollution." In 2024, ASEAN inaugurated the ASEAN haze coordination center and adopted a Second Haze Free Roadmap covering 2023-2030.

The agreement has no binding sanctions provision. When Indonesian fires produce haze that crosses into Malaysia, Singapore, or Brunei — triggering public health emergencies, hospital visits, school closures, and economic losses — those countries have no legal mechanism under the AATHP to compel Indonesia to prosecute the companies and individuals whose burning caused the event. The treaty's architecture is monitoring and coordination, not enforcement. As SIIA chairman Simon Tay noted in June 2026, "ASEAN needs greater ownership" of this challenge as the region enters a potentially severe dry season and faces the longer-term impacts of climate change.

What Travelers and Residents Should Know Now

BNPB is urging the Indonesian public to refrain from burning trash or land, avoid discarding cigarette butts in dry areas, reduce non-essential water use, and prepare reserve water storage through the duration of the dry season, which the agency expects to continue through late August or September.

For residents of Malaysia and Singapore: both countries' health authorities advise monitoring national air quality indices (Malaysia's APIMS system; Singapore's haze.gov.sg, updated hourly). Readings above 100 are "unhealthy" in Malaysia's API system; readings above 100 in Singapore's 24-hour PSI trigger formal haze advisories. When air quality is in the unhealthy range, those with heart or lung conditions, children, and the elderly should limit outdoor activity and consider wearing N95-grade masks. Air conditioning, when available, provides meaningful protection against outdoor PM2.5 penetration.

Cloud seeding — the fastest route to significant rainfall in a fire-driven haze event — is foreclosed until at least August 18. Peak fire season continues through September. The conditions that make 2026 comparable to 2015 are not dissipating.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Indonesia's best wildfire tool — cloud seeding — stop working?

Cloud seeding requires existing rain-bearing clouds to work: aircraft disperse particles such as silver iodide or salt into moisture-laden clouds, triggering the formation of ice crystals that fall as rain. The technique can enhance rainfall from qualifying clouds but cannot produce rain from clear skies. In 2026, the combination of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has suppressed atmospheric moisture across Indonesia so completely that Indonesia's BMKG found no rain-bearing clouds suitable for weather-modification operations through at least August 18. This is not a failure of the technology — it is the technology's fundamental physical precondition being absent. Indonesia used cloud seeding in 2015 during the previous major haze season. The 2026 atmospheric conditions are worse.

How dangerous is the haze for people in Malaysia and Singapore right now?

As of Monday, August 10, nine areas in Malaysia's Sarawak recorded Air Pollutant Index readings above 100 — Malaysia's threshold for "unhealthy" air. Serian recorded 180, Kuching 162, Samarahan 163. In Singapore, the 24-hour PSI reached 81 on Sunday (above 100 is unhealthy). People with pre-existing heart or lung conditions, children, the elderly, and pregnant women are at greatest risk from PM2.5 — the fine particulate matter in wildfire smoke — and should reduce outdoor activity when readings are above 100. At readings above 200 ("very unhealthy"), authorities in both countries typically close schools and impose hard limits on outdoor activities. The worst of Indonesia's fire season typically arrives in September, after the fires have had additional weeks to expand.

Why does Southeast Asia's regional haze treaty keep failing to stop the fires?

The ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution (AATHP), which has been in force since 2003, is a legally binding agreement between all 10 ASEAN member states to monitor, prevent, and control transboundary haze. Its critical limitation is structural: it has no binding sanctions provision. When Indonesia's fires produce smoke that crosses into Malaysia, Singapore, or Brunei — creating health emergencies affecting millions of people — those countries have no enforcement mechanism under the AATHP to compel prosecution of the land-clearing actors whose burning drove the fires. The treaty coordinates monitoring and requests assistance; it cannot compel a country to prosecute its own citizens or corporations on behalf of neighboring nations. ASEAN inaugurated a new Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control in 2024 and adopted a Second Haze Free Roadmap through 2030, but those frameworks remain coordination mechanisms without enforcement powers.

Is Mount Bromo closed, and when will it reopen?

Yes. Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park, which encompasses Mount Bromo, has been closed to all visitors indefinitely following a wildfire that burned approximately 743 hectares (1,836 acres) of the park's terrain, including rare protected edelweiss flowers and the area around Penanjakan — the summit viewpoint most popular for sunrise watching. Park chief Rudijanta Tjahja Nugraha confirmed the closure would remain in effect until fire conditions stabilize. The park was also closed in September 2023 after a pre-wedding photo shoot using flares ignited more than 500 hectares. No official reopening timeline has been provided. Travelers with planned visits should assume the closure extends at least through Indonesia's peak fire months — August and September.

Originally published on Tech Times